O petróleo volta a subir

Ontem, o barril chegou a 68 dólares. E a culpa, segundo a The Economist, é nossa, junto com China e Índia. Os choques de petróleo da década de 70 causaram a chamada estagflação, uma combinação de baixo crescimento com inflação alta. Agora, diz o semanário inglês, as economias mais ricas usam a energia com muito mais eficiência e tem mercados de trabalho menos rígidos. Dessa forma, os aumentos fortes que ocorreram nessa década causaram um estrago menor. Em compensação, o apetite por energia dos BRICs ainda é grande. Quando esse time acelera, o preço do óleo dispara.

Worries about the broader macroeconomic impact of higher oil prices centre on the possibility of the return of stagflation, the combination of high inflation and declining output that marred the periods of the 1970s after the two oil shocks of 1973 and 1979. For now that seems most unlikely, given the wider concerns about deflation in the rich world. Olivier Blanchard, now the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, and economist Jordi Gali, in 2008 looked at the response of industrialised economies, particularly America, to oil price shocks since the 1970s. They doubted that higher oil prices would mean the return of stagflation, concluding that inflation, unemployment and output were markedly less responsive to oil prices during the two big oil price hikes since the 1980s, which began in 1999 and 2002.