Há alguns anos, através de petições populares, Hugo Chavez foi obrigado a enfrentar um voto de recall. Ganhou e, como o nome dos signatários era conhecido, perseguiu os que apoiaram essa votação. O governo venezuelano, claro, nega. Mas a mesma lista que permitiu a punição, também informou um estudo econométrico mostrando que os membros do movimento pioraram de vida depois da derrota eleitoral contra Chavez.
De Alex Tabarrock, do site Marginal Revolution:
Technology cuts both ways, however, and in a truly remarkable paper, Hsieh, Miguel, Ortega and Rodriguez match information in the petition database to another database on wages, employment and income. What the authors find is shocking, albeit not surprising. Before the recall election, petition signatories and non-signatories look alike. After the election, the employment and wages of signatories drop considerably, about a 10% drop in wages relative to non-signatories. Survey evidence conducted by the authors is consistent with retaliation by Chavez supporters especially in the form of job losses in the public sector. The authors estimate that the retaliation was so widespread, many workers were pushed into informal employment, that the Venezuelan economy was significantly damaged.This is original, important and actionable research. Bravo to the authors, especially to Ortega who--as of this posting--has a job in Venezuela.
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